Analysis: Unintentional Shootings Increase Around major U.S. Holidays

Most unintentional shooting incidents occur during the week of Independence Day, New Years, Thanksgiving, and Christmas.

Introduction

As we head into the holiday season, it is critical to remember the importance of safe gun storage in keeping our loved ones safe. As previous reporting indicates, unintentional shootings increase during major holidays due to more time spent in and around the home.

Data shows that easy access to unsecured firearms leads to more unintentional shootings. States with the highest levels of gun ownership experience an unintentional firearm mortality rate 7 times that of states with the lowest levels of gun ownership.

Preventing access to unsecured firearms is particularly important in reducing unintentional injury among U.S. youth. Each day, 8 kids are unintentionally shot or killed and there are 350 unintentional shootings in which a child pulls the trigger every year. A recent article from the Centers for Disease Control found that approximately three-quarters of fatal unintentional shootings among children involved an unlocked and loaded firearm. Research demonstrates that if just 20% more households securely stored their firearms locked and unloaded, youth firearm suicide and fatal unintentional shootings would decrease by up to 32%.

Although unintentional shooting deaths account for a small fraction of firearm-related deaths each year, they account for a large proportion of firearm injuries. Since 2019, unintentional firearm injury has been the most common type of firearm injury that requires hospitalization.

Methodology

Using data from the Gun Violence Archive, we analyzed the number of unintentional shooting incidents between 2018-2022, which they recorded as “Accidental Shootings.” To gather this information for all ages, we downloaded information from their “Past Years” database; we then used the search query function to isolate those under the age of 18 to better understand unintentional shootings perpetrated by children ages 0-17.

We used a week-level analysis to determine which weeks have a higher number of unintentional shootings. If previous research is any indication, we expect to see spikes around Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah, New Year's, Memorial Day, and Independence Day. This is because these time periods involve more time in and around the home, and are often accompanied by increased alcohol consumption, and an increase in firearm purchasing – especially when examining the winter holidays.

Each week was assigned on a 7-day period basis. Table 3 (seen below) indicates the dates assigned to each week.

Unintentional Shootings Among All Ages

On average, the Gun Violence Archive verifies 1,919 unintentional shooting incidents each year. Over the five-year period (2018-2022), the number of unintentional shooting incidents decreased by 3.6%.

As seen in Figure 1, unintentional shooting incidents were highest during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2018-2020, unintentional shootings increased by 37.5%. During this time more people were at home, firearm purchases surged, and overall gun violence increased – all of which are associated with increased unintentional shooting incidents.

Across the country, states with weak gun laws and higher levels of gun ownership typically have a higher number of unintentional shootings in a year than states with stronger gun laws. For example, Texas – which does not have a safe storage law and has the highest rate of gun ownership in the country – has the highest number of unintentional shootings on average. Comparatively, Rhode Island – a state with robust firearm laws, including laws around safe storage, and the state with the lowest rate of gun ownership – has the lowest number of unintentional shootings on average.

When people spend more time in and around the home and have easy access to firearms, there is an increased likelihood of injury or death.

We know that during the warmer summer months, unintentional shootings increase. In this analysis, we find that the same is true during major holidays.

On average, unintentional shootings among all ages occur most frequently around Independence Day, New Year’s Day, and Thanksgiving.

Around major holidays, people are more likely to be in or around the home. That, combined with easy access to firearms that are stored unlocked and loaded, proves to be a dangerous combination for unintentional shootings.

The three weeks with the most unintentional shootings overlapped with weeks of three major holidays: Independence Day, New Year’s Day, and Thanksgiving. Christmas and other winter holidays marked a significant rise in incidents as well.

To prevent unintentional firearm injury around the holidays, firearms must be stored securely: unloaded, locked, and separated from ammunition.

A study found that when firearms are stored loaded and unlocked, there is a higher risk of unintentional firearm death. To keep people safe, keeping guns locked, unloaded, and separate from ammunition is of the utmost importance.

Unintentional Shootings Among Children (Aged 0-17)

On average, the Gun Violence Archive verifies 334 unintentional shootings perpetrated by children (aged 0-17) each year. Unlike among all age groups, the number of unintentional shooting incidents among children over the period analysis increased by 43.9%.

As seen in Figure 3, unintentional shootings perpetrated by U.S. children peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic – a time when more people were at home and firearm purchases surged. Unlike the trends seen across all age groups, post-pandemic child-inflicted unintentional shootings remained higher than pre-pandemic levels, which emphasizes the need for safe storage.

In fact, 85% of fatal unintentional shootings among children occur in a home.

Across the country, states with weak gun laws and higher rates of gun ownership also typically have a higher number of unintentional shootings perpetrated by children (aged 0-17) in a year than states with stronger gun laws. Just as with unintentional shootings among all ages, Texas – which does not have a safe storage law and has the highest rate of gun ownership in the country – has the highest number of unintentional shootings perpetrated by children on average. Comparatively, Rhode Island – a state with robust firearm laws, including laws around safe storage and the lowest rate of gun ownership in the country – had no unintentional shootings perpetrated by children on average. These findings highlight the importance of safe storage in preventing firearm-related harm among minors.

At times when children have easy access to firearms, there is an increased number of incidents in which a child unintentionally pulls the trigger.

Previous research indicates that recent household firearm acquisition is associated with an increased risk of unintentional firearm injury and death among young children (younger than 12 years of age). In order to keep children safe, gun owners must utilize responsible storage practices that ensure firearms are kept locked and unloaded to reduce the chance of unintentional injury and death for the entire family.

On average, unintentional shootings among children occur most frequently around Independence Day, the Summer months, and the winter holidays.

Around major holidays and during the summer, children are more likely to be in or around the home. That combined with easy access to unlocked and loaded firearms proves to be a dangerous combination for unintentional shootings.

Half of the weeks with the most unintentional shootings perpetrated by children occurred during the summer. Another rise in incidents can be seen during the week of Christmas. These are both times when children are more likely to be home or visiting the homes of others and are less likely to be supervised closely.

ASK family, friends, and members of your community if there is an unlocked gun in the home to prevent unintentional shootings.

ASK (Asking Saves Kids) is a simple way to help keep kids safe and a fundamental part of our End Family Fire program. Parents and guardians ask all sorts of questions before they allow their children to visit other homes; they ask about pets, discuss allergies, and ask questions about supervision. ASK encourages parents and guardians to add one more question to this conversation: "Is there an unlocked gun where my child plays?"

This question is simple and essential to saving lives and preventing injuries. Easy access to guns in the home increases the risk of youth perpetrating unintentional shootings. A recent study found that if 20% more households stored their firearms locked, youth firearm suicide and unintentional firearm deaths could be reduced by up to 32%.

Limitations of Analysis

The Gun Violence Archive uses data provided by law enforcement that their researchers independently verify. However, their datasets leave out a large proportion of non-fatal unintentional firearm injuries that often go unreported.

According to the CDC, there is an average of 503 people – including 106 children – who are killed each year by unintentional shootings. Further, hospital-based reporting from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) indicates that an average of 32,758 people – including 2,893 children – are unintentionally shot and sustain non-fatal injuries each year.

Yet, the Gun Violence Archive only is able to independently verify an average of 1,919 unintentional shooting incidents each year. This gap in data leaves much to be understood about the frequency of unintentional shootings. Despite this restriction, this analysis provides essential insights into the conditions that may facilitate an increase in unintentional shootings. However, because HCUP does not allow for their publicly available dataset to be broken down into a week-level analysis, we chose to utilize the Gun Violence Archive’s verified database.